Commodities · Oil
Oil in 2026: from $50 to $102, and now $82. The numbers
In four months the barrel went from $50 to $102, then eased back to $82. Year to date crude is still up 60%: the biggest commodity move of the year. The numbers, measured on closes to August 14, 2026.
While gold went on a round trip, the other side of the commodity board did the opposite: oil doubled in four months. From the low of to the high of a barrel of WTI went from $50.48 to $102.27 — +103%. Then it eased back, and on it closes at $82.41: 19% below the high, yet still 60% up on the year.
These are numbers anyone can redo, and here we redo them one by one, on WTI futures closes (adjusted continuous series).
The numbers behind crude's 2026, in one card
| Metric | Value | When |
|---|---|---|
| Low of the year | $50.48/barrel | |
| ! High of the year | $102.27 | |
| Latest close | $82.41 | |
| Low to high | +102.6% | over 91 sessions |
| High to today | −19.4% | over 62 sessions |
| Year to date | +60.4% | against $51.38 at end-2025 |
| Over twelve months | +48.1% | against $55.64 a year ago |
The January low: $50.48 a barrel
Crude's year begins in the quietest place imaginable. On January 7 WTI closes at $50.48: it is the low of 2026, and it lands on the fourth session of the year, when almost nobody was looking at oil.
From there on there is not one calm stretch. Anyone who reads markets knows the biggest moves almost always start where the subject has dropped out of the headlines — and this is a textbook case.
The doubling: four months, +103%
From the January 7 low to the May 19 high it takes 132 calendar days — 91 sessions — and the barrel gains 102.6%. Doubling the price of a commodity in four months is not an ordinary move: it drags transport inflation, airline margins and producer accounts along with it.
Month-end closes show where the run was concentrated:
| Month | Close | Against end-2025 |
|---|---|---|
| January | $59.0 | +14.8% |
| February | $60.5 | +17.8% |
| ! March | $92.0 | +79.1% |
| April | $99.2 | +93.1% |
| May | $86.3 | +67.9% |
| June | $69.4 | +35.0% |
| July | $86.8 | +68.9% |
| August 14 | $82.4 | +60.4% |
March is the month that makes the year: it closes at $92 from $60.5 at the end of February. Those $31.5 are on their own almost two thirds of the $51.8 that separate the January low from the May high.
The summer retreat: −19% off the high
From May 19 the price falls: on August 14 the barrel is worth $82.41, 19.4% below the high. June is the worst month (a $69.4 close), July wins almost all of it back, August settles.
It helps to put those moves on their historical scale. The 2026 high of $102.27 is still below the record in our series, which is $112.25 on : the hottest year of modern crude is still that one, and 2026 came within ten dollars without taking it out.
The year-to-date balance: +60%
At the 2025 close WTI was worth $51.38. On August 14, 2026 it is worth $82.41: +60.4%. That number weighs differently from an equity gain of the same size, because oil is not only an investment — it is a cost that feeds into almost every other price.
The average close across the 155 sessions of 2026 is $77.4: anyone buying crude at random, on any day of the year, paid something close to that on average. A year ago the same average sat below $60.
What a litre of crude costs today
The barrel is a unit nobody handles: it is 158.99 litres. At the August 14 price, a litre of crude costs about $0.52 — less than a bottle of water.
The rest of what you pay at the pump is not oil: it is refining, logistics, the retailer's margin and above all excise duty and VAT. That is why pump prices do not double when the barrel doubles — and, by the same token, do not halve when the barrel falls: the fixed part of the bill does not move.
Over twelve months: +48%
On WTI closed at $55.64. Against a year ago we are +48.1%: here, unlike gold, the long and the short horizon tell the same story. When two different measures agree, the signal is sturdier — and it is the first check we run before publishing a number.
Why it happened: the other side of the same coin
In 2026 the two big commodities moved in opposite directions, and that is no accident. Gold is an asset that produces nothing: when rates rise, holding it costs more and the price meets a brake — that is the story of its 2026. Oil is the opposite: it is an asset that gets consumed, and its price is set by industrial demand and producer supply, not by the yield forgone elsewhere.
An economy that runs and yields that climb are the same piece of news read from two sides: heavy for the metal, friendly to the barrel. Here too we measure the price, not the intentions: whether the link holds has to be verified over the coming months, not assumed.
Where the numbers are checked, one by one
This page grew out of a visual card from our commodities series: the card tells the year at a glance, the page opens it up and verifies it. And oil does not stop at the barrel: it runs through the accounts of the companies that pump it, ship it and refine it — Eni, Tenaris and Saipem are the three Milan names that feel that price first.
The full collection of analyses is at English analysis, the Italian one at /analisi/. With the same method we measured gold's 2026, dividend ETFs and the US sector map.
The rest of the project: the DOMINA home page explains what the platform does, the dashboard is the entry point for people working with us (you can sign in here if you already have an account), plans and pricing live on their own page and you can register here.
*This article is a descriptive analysis of historical data: it is not an investment recommendation, and past performance does not anticipate future returns.*
Daniele Lavecchia — editorial lead, DOMINA Trading Suite
Published
Method and sources
Prices are closes of WTI COMEX futures (CL), adjusted continuous series — the series that stitches expiring contracts one after another, so the chart carries no artificial jumps at each roll. Changes are computed on closes: from ($51.38) to ($82.41) for the year-to-date figure; from ($55.64) for the twelve-month one. The per-litre price uses 158.987 litres per barrel. The data comes from our own historical archive, the same one that feeds the platform's charts and pages: every number here can be reopened and rechecked session by session. WTI is the American benchmark: Brent, the European one, trades on its own levels and spreads.
Disclaimer
This document is for information and educational purposes. The sectors and stocks mentioned are not recommendations: this is not financial advice, not personalised guidance, and not a solicitation to invest. The data describes past and present conditions and contains no forecast or promise of future results. Every investment decision remains the responsibility of the reader, who should assess their situation with a licensed professional.
Transparency about production
This article was produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence tools, under human supervision and review. All figures come from the archives and calculation engines of the DOMINA platform and were verified before publication.